Analysts Increase Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval by SEC
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised their odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. They predict a 75% chance of approval by the end of this year, and a 95% chance by the end of 2024.
Grayscale’s Court Win Impacts Approval Odds
The analysts attribute the increased chances of approval to Grayscale’s recent court win. The DC Circuit court of appeals vacated the SEC’s denial of Grayscale’s $GBTC conversion into a spot Bitcoin ETF. While this victory does not automatically convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, it paves the way for future approval.
SEC Arguments Repudiated by Appeals Court
The analysts point out that the judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments in the court ruling. Judge Neomi Rao’s written opinion refuted nearly every argument made by the SEC regarding the comparison between the Bitcoin spot and futures markets.
SEC Decision on Multiple Spot Bitcoin ETFs Expected
The SEC is expected to make a decision on multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of this week. However, with the recent Grayscale court outcome, many believe that the applications will be further delayed. Balchunas believes that the timeline may not matter much in this situation, as the SEC is likely to eventually give in and approve the launch.
Conclusion
The increased odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC is a promising development for the cryptocurrency industry. The court ruling in favor of Grayscale’s conversion request and the repudiation of the SEC’s arguments demonstrate the growing acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs. Although there may still be delays and challenges, the analysts’ predictions suggest that we are moving closer to the approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the near future.
Hot take: The rising odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval indicate a significant shift in the SEC’s perspective on cryptocurrencies. This could potentially open the floodgates for increased institutional adoption and investment in Bitcoin, leading to further growth and mainstream acceptance of digital assets.
